Team Spirit are outright favourites with top esports betting sites to win their second International title, and it’s very hard to make a case against them. The 2021 champions looked phenomenal in the group stage and haven’t lost a single map so far this tournament.

This also explains why Team Spirit are heavy favourites to defeat Group C’s fourth seed, Virtus.pro, but there’s more to the offered Dota 2 betting odds than just the team’s performances this tournament. Team Spirit have not lost against VP once this season, winning all three meetings.

However, as much as we can agree that Team Spirit are the most likely victors, this is still a regional derby between two rosters that know each other exceptionally well. And regional derbies tend to be much closer than your average matchup.

A lot will have to go right for VP to derail Team Spirit, but at the offered betting odds, Virtus.pro to win a map is the right play.

Team Liquid entered TI12 as one of the top dogs, and they’ve yet to lose that tag. Liquid finished the group stage with one upset draw against China’s Azure Rayand, then crushed Evil Geniuses (2-0) in the second phase, making a solid case for themselves as a dangerous contender to win their first TI since 2017.

Talon Esports have shown themselves to be a threat at international events this season, and they looked solid last week throughout their group stage run. However, while Talon finished the group stage in third place, they struggled when faced with stronger teams such as TSM and Tundra Esports.

Since July, Team Liquid have met with Talon Esports four times and won all but one series – a draw at DreamLeague Season 21. But even though Talon managed to take a point from Liquid in September, they’ve not shown enough in Seattle to be considered a serious threat.

LGD Gaming were priced as +1000 outsiders on the outright betting markets before the tournament began, but as we enter the playoffs, it’s clear that number was very disrespectful. LGD Gaming were phenomenal in the group stage with wins against Gaimin Gladiators, nouns, and beastcoast and one draw against Virtus.pro.

That is a very small sample size of games, but the eye test suggests that LGD Gaming are more than ready for another deep run. Their next opponents, 9Pandas, have had their moments in Group A, where they took points from Entity and Evil Geniuses, but their overall performance was pretty mediocre.

LGD Gaming are in excellent form and arguably the second-best team entering the playoffs. We have to take the Chinese squad to sweep.

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Execration and TSM have met four times this year, most recently in April, during Berlin Major 2023, when they parted ways with a 1-1 draw. Three of the four meetings ended in a tie – the only exception was TSM’s victory at DreamLeague Season 19, two weeks before the Berlin Major.

Based purely on their head-to-head record, TSM and Execration look evenly matched, but according to the top Dota 2 betting sites, this is TSM’s game to lose. This doesn’t make much sense, considering TSM haven’t played a single official match since June.

On the other hand, Execration are not in the best form. They attended the Bali Major earlier this month and crashed out in 15-16th place without a single victory (0-5-3), which looks concerning. But even though Execration crumbled in Bali, they should do fine against the rusty TSM.

Team Liquid are priced at +650 to win Riyadh Masters 2023, behind only Tundra Esports (+300) and Gaimin Gladiators (+200). While Liquid look a great bet to reach the final (+275), there is a good chance Entity will make them work for the win in this clash.

Opening matches of Majors tend to be much closer, and that trend is especially noticeable this season. At the Dota 2 Bali Major, half of the first-round games ended in a draw; in Berlin, 43.75% (7/16). That wouldn’t be a good enough reason to bet against Liquid, but Aydin “iNSaNiA” Sarkohi and his crew are known to play down to their opponent’s level, which makes Entity with a +1.5 map advantage a solid choice.

9Pandas placed fifth-sixth at Bali Major 2023 at the start of July and will now look to build on that success in Ryidah as one of the live outsiders to make a deep run. In Bali, the Russians didn’t disappoint with their performances, and while their run through the group stage (3-2-2) wasn’t too impressive, 9Pandas left a strong statement with their games against Team Aster (2-1), beastcoast (2-1), and Team Liquid (1-2).

OG didn’t attend the Bali Major and were last seen competing in June at DreamLeague Season 20, where Tommy “Taiga” Le and co. placed 13th-16th. Still, this is a good team, and with Sébastien “Ceb” Debs back on the roster, OG are capable of competing for at least a top-eight finish.

9Pandas look much better on paper than OG, but 9Pandas are also known to stumble in best-of-two series, which could make this game a bit closer than expected. A draw seems like the most likely outcome, but we’re getting far more value backing OG to win in the three-way market.

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